Optionality is the property of asymmetric upside (preferably unlimited) with correspondingly limited downside (preferably tiny).
– Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The preceding article in this series – What Swiftly Achieving 100% Renewable Energy Might Look Like – showed that a decision-making process for exponentially adopting carbon-reducing energy options, swiftly achieving a “moon-shot” goal of 100% renewable energy and reversing global warming might look like this:
* * * *
Right now, decision-makers using present-day decision-making processes might be said to be stuck on a “detriment curve” – and unlimited downside — of:
- exponentially growing & unlimited greenhouse gas emissions,
- exponentially growing & potentially unlimited global warming, and
- exponentially growing & unlimited economic costs of adapting to global warming,
as shown in Figure 2:
Without a decision-making process for exponentially adopting carbon-reducing energy options, swiftly achieving 100% renewable energy and reversing global warming – humanity and the rest of the planet are literally toast.
Decision-makers might be said to be stuck on the “unlimited downside” shown in Figure 2 because they are not yet aware that they have an option of creating a decision-making process – like the one shown in Figure 1 – for exponentially adopting carbon-reducing energy options, swiftly achieving 100% renewable energy and reversing global warming.
When decision-makers invest in such a decision-making process, they shift themselves (and all the rest of us) to a “benefit curve” – and an unlimited upside — of:
- exponentially growing & unlimited economic wealth (economic cost savings)
- exponentially growing & unlimited environmental preservation benefits (avoided and/or sequestered greenhouse gas emissions) and
- arresting & reversing global warming,
as shown in Figure 3:
Figure 3 shows the unlimited upside when decision-makers invest in such decision-making processes because such investments have a tiny downside (the time and economic costs needed to create and implement such processes) and an unlimited upside (exponentially growing & unlimited economic wealth and environmental preservation benefits, including arresting & reversing global warming).
In Drawdown, the Project Drawdown team demonstrated that the green “upside” area shown in Figure 3 has a value of more than 1000 gigatonsof reduced greenhouse gas emissions and more than $74 trillionof economic wealth if the atmospheric-carbon-reducing options studied in Drawdown are adopted on a global scale over the next 30 years.
* * * *
This is what Buckminster Fuller was talking about when he said:
You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.
Figure 2 shows the existing reality of present-day decision-making processes: decision-makers and the rest of us stuck on an unlimited downside because decision-makers are not yet aware that they have an option of building new decision-making models for exponentially adopting carbon-reducing energy options, swiftly achieving 100% renewable energy and reversing global warming.
Figure 3 shows the changed reality when decision-makers build new decision-making models for exponentially adopting carbon-reducing energy options and reversing global warming.
The new decision-making models change the existing reality – and make the existing decision-making models obsolete — by shifting decision-makers from the unlimited downside shown in Figure 2 to the unlimited upside shown in Figure 3.
Which decision-making models do you want? Do you want the present-day decision-making models that deliver the unlimited downside shown in Figure 2? Or do you want the decision-making models – for exponentially adopting carbon-reducing energy options – that deliver the unlimited upside shown in Figure 3? It’s your decision.
* * * *
Wondering how you can shift decision-makers (and all the rest of us) to an unlimited upside like that shown in Figure 3?
My new book, You Can Reverse Global Warming, is the first-ever book to show a “right-question-asking” process for persuading decision-makers to shift to the unlimited upside shown in Figure 3, and making them think it was their own idea.
For a limited time, you can download a complimentary advance copy of You Can Reverse Global Warming at www.erikkvam.com.
Got questions about how you can swiftly achieve 100% renewable energy? About how you can reverse global warming? If you do, I hope that you will send me a message at extraordinary@erikkvam.com. I’m here to serve you.
* * * *
In the next article in this Reversing Global Warming series, I’ll show how you can reverse global warming, and do so with maximum effectiveness.
Thank you for reading this article. I’m grateful for your comments.
