Options, any options, by allowing you more upside than downside, are vectors of antifragility
Nassim Nicholas Taleb

An earlier article in this series – How to Evaluate Benefits Delivered by an Energy Option showed that a second step in a decision-making process for adopting a renewable energy option might look decision-makers evaluating benefits of energy options available for adoption.  In this article, you’re going to learn how to evaluate the supply security benefits of any energy option.

*  *  *  *

An energy option might be said to deliver supply security benefits to the extent that the option secures energy supply by: (1) increasing the amount of renewable energy supplied to an energy service system from an inexhaustible renewable resource like sunshine or wind, and/or (2) decreasing the total amount of energy consumed in an energy service system through application of an inexhaustible renewable resource called human imagination.

An energy option that delivers supply security benefits by increasing the amount of renewable energy supplied to an energy service system and/or decreasing the total amount of energy consumed in an energy service system might be called a renewable energy option.

An energy option might be said to deliver supply security benefits to the extent that the energy option increases renewable energy supplied to an energy service system as a percentage of total energy consumed in the energy service system. The amount of renewable energy supplied to an energy service system as a percentage of total energy consumed in the energy service system might be called the “renewable energy percentage” of an energy service system, as shown in Figure 1:

Renewable Energy Percentage of an Energy Service System
Figure 1: Renewable Energy Percentage of an Energy Service System

An energy option that increases the renewable energy percentage of an energy service system might be said to deliver supply security benefits for users of energy services provided by the system because, for each 1% increase in the renewable energy percentage of an energy service system attributable to the energy option, such users might be said to be 1% more supply-secure.

Decision-makers coming into consensus on a measurably-stated goal of 100% renewable energy turns difficult-to-measure supply security benefits of an energy option into supply security benefits measurable by the increase in the renewable energy percentage of an energy service system attributable to the energy option. Supply security benefits of an energy option might look like the amount by which an energy option increases the renewable energy percentage of an energy service system, as shown in Figure 2:

Increase in Renewable Energy Percentage with the Energy Option
Figure 2: Increase in Renewable Energy Percentage with the Energy Option

Decision-makers might evaluate supply security benefits of an energy option using a method that looks like this:

First, calculate the renewable energy percentage of an energy service system (an electric power grid, a heating and/or cooling system, or a transportation system serving a locality or region) without the energy option. That is, calculate the renewable energy percentage of the energy service system as it presently exists by dividing: (1) renewable energy presently supplied to the energy service system, by (2) total energy presently consumed in the energy service system, to obtain the “Renewable Energy Percentage without the Energy Option,” as shown in Figure 3:

Renewable Energy Percentage without the Energy Option
Figure 3: Renewable Energy Percentage without the Energy Option

Second, calculate the renewable energy percentage of the energy service system with the energy option. That is, calculate the renewable energy percentage of the energy service system by dividing: (1) renewable energy supplied to the energy service system as increased by the energy option, by (2) total energy consumed in the energy service system as decreased by the energy option, to obtain the “Renewable Energy Percentage with the Energy Option,” as shown in Figure 4:

Renewable Energy Percentage with the Energy Option
Figure 4: Renewable Energy Percentage with the Energy Option

Third, calculate the supply security benefits of the energy option by subtracting: (1) the Renewable Energy Percentage without the Energy Option, from (2) the Renewable Energy Percentage with the Energy Option. The energy option might be said to deliver supply security benefits to the extent that the Renewable Energy Percentage with the Energy Option is greater than the Renewable Energy Percentage without the Energy Option, as shown in Figure 5:

Supply Security Benefits of an Energy Option
Figure 5: Supply Security Benefits of an Energy Option

To summarize:

Supply Security Benefits of an Energy Option Equals Increase in Renewable Energy Percentage
Figure 6: Supply Security Benefits of an Energy Option Equals Increase in Renewable Energy Percentage

Decision-makers evaluating supply security benefits of an energy option might look like this:

Hawaii Story: In 2015, decision-makers placed in service a 6.7 MW biomass-fueled electric power generation facility serving the island of Kauai. During its first full year of operation in 2016, the facility increased renewable energy supplied to the Kauai electric power grid by about 49,656 MWh per year – from about 133,248 MWh per year without the facility, to about 182,904 MWh per year with the facility. Total energy consumed in the Kauai electric power grid during 2016 was about 439,088 MWh per year, which was not decreased by the facility. The facility might be said to deliver supply security benefits measured by an increase of 11.3% in the renewable energy percentage of the Kauai electric power grid, as follows:

Supply Security Benefits of a Biomass-fueled Electric Power Generation Option
Figure 7: Supply Security Benefits of a Biomass-fueled Electric Power Generation Option

*  *  *  *

An energy option that increases the renewable energy percentage of an energy service system (color-coded green in Figure 8 below) delivers supply security benefits.  Such an option might be adopted, depending on decision-makers’ evaluation of its other benefits.

An energy option that does not increase the renewable energy percentage of an energy service system (color-coded red in Figure 8 below) does not deliver supply security benefits. Decision-makers might be expected to resist adopting options that do not deliver supply security benefits if other options are available that deliver performance benefits, economic benefits, environmental preservation and supply security benefits.

Evaluating Supply Security Benefits of an Energy Option
Figure 8: Evaluating Supply Security Benefits of an Energy Option

*  *  *  *

If decision-makers are in consensus on a method for evaluating supply security benefits of available energy options, they next might ask themselves, “What might evaluating risk mitigation benefits of an energy option look like?”

*  *  *  *

Ready for a deeper understanding of how to reverse global warming?

My new book, You Can Reverse Global Warming:

  • frames global warming as a decision-making problem
  • shows a decision-making process for swiftly achieving 100% renewable energy and reversing global warming
  • shows a “right-question-asking” process for persuading decision-makers how to shift to the “unlimited upside” shown in Figure 9, and making them think it was their own idea:
Unlimited Upside of a Decision-making Process for Reversing Global Warming
Figure 9: Unlimited Upside of a Decision-making Process for Reversing Global Warming

For a limited time, you can download a complimentary advance copy of You Can Reverse Global Warming at www.erikkvam.com.

Got questions about how you can swiftly achieve 100% renewable energy?  About how you can reverse global warming?  If you do, I hope that you will send me a message at extraordinary@erikkvam.com.

*  *  *  *

In the next article in this Reversing Global Warming series, I’m going to show how you can evaluate the risk mitigation benefits of any energy option.

Thank you for reading this article.  I’m grateful for your comments.

#erikkvam


    1 Response to "How to Evaluate the Supply Security Benefits of any Energy Option"

    • Tamiflu

      Overall, the analysis of recent VoLL studies has shown that, according to the present state of the art, VoLL is only capable of mapping one individual case as an economic evaluation index of power supply security, and the respective results must be considered and assessed against the background of the analytical framework. The informative value of these results is not sufficient for comparisons with the results of other studies.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.