As the future is never known with certainty, the evaluation of the prospective benefits requires the formation of expectations.
– Dale Mortensen
An earlier article in this series – What a Decision-making Process for Achieving 100% Renewable Energy Might Look Like – showed that a second step in a decision-making process for adopting a renewable energy option might look decision-makers evaluating benefits of energy options available for adoption.
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An energy option might be thought of as a bundle of benefits that the energy option delivers to a user of the energy service provided by the energy option. Such a bundle of benefits might be analogized to a bundle of sticks, as shown in Figure 1:
Decision-makers evaluating benefits of an energy option might look like decision-makers asking themselves the following questions about the energy option:
First, decision-makers might ask, “Will the energy option work?”
If an energy option delivers electric power service, they might ask, “Will it deliver electric power of the expected frequency and voltage?”
If an energy option delivers heating or cooling service, they might ask, “Will it heat or cool air, water or some other medium of heat exchange to the expected temperature?”
If an energy option delivers transportation service, they might ask, “Will it move people or freight to a desired destination at the expected speed over the expected length of time?”
To the extent that an energy option works to deliver the expected energy service, the energy option might be said to deliver performance benefits for users of the energy service provided by the energy option.
If a bundle of benefits delivered by an energy option is analogized to a bundle of sticks, the performance benefits of an energy option might be analogized to one of the sticks in the bundle, as shown in this figure:
Second, decision-makers might ask, “Will the energy option pay for itself in dollar cost savings?”
They might ask, “Will it cost more money than it saves, or save more money than it costs?”
To the extent that the energy option is expected to save more money than it costs — and to create wealth in the form of energy cost savings — the energy option might be said to deliver economic benefits for users of the energy service provided by the energy option.
If a bundle of benefits delivered by an energy option is analogized to a bundle of sticks, the economic benefits of an energy option might be analogized to one of the sticks in the bundle, as shown in this figure:
Third, decision-makers might ask, “Will the energy option preserve the environment?”
They might ask, “Will it cause more greenhouse gas emissions than it saves, or save more greenhouse gas emissions than it causes?”
To the extent that the energy option is expected to save more greenhouse gas emissions than it causes, the energy option might be said to deliver environmental preservation benefits for users of the energy service provided by the energy option.
If a bundle of benefits delivered by an energy option is analogized to a bundle of sticks, the environmental preservation benefits of an energy option might be analogized to one of the sticks in the bundle, as shown in this figure:
Fourth, decision-makers might ask, “Will the energy option secure energy supply?”
Decision-makers might ask, “Will it secure energy supply from inexhaustible renewable resources like sunshine, wind and human imagination (providing more energy service with less physical energy), or from exhaustible non-renewable resources like fossil fuels and uranium?”
To the extent that the energy option is expected to secure energy supply from inexhaustible renewable resources, the energy option might be said to deliver supply security benefits for users of the energy service provided by the energy option.
If a bundle of benefits delivered by an energy option is analogized to a bundle of sticks, the supply security benefits of an energy option might be analogized to one of the sticks in the bundle, as shown in this figure:
Fifth, decision-makers might ask, “How likely is it that the energy option will deliver expected performance benefits, expected economic benefits, expected environmental preservation benefits and expected supply security benefits?”
They might ask, “How likely is it that risks presented by the energy option will diminish or negate an expected benefit of the energy option?”
They might ask, “How likely is it that external vulnerability risks (hurricane, tsunami, human attack, etc.) presented by the energy option will diminish or negate its expected performance benefits?”
They might ask, “How likely is it that technological failure risks presented by the energy option will diminish or negate its expected performance benefits?”
They might ask, “How likely is that cost overrun risks presented by the energy option will diminish or negate its expected economic benefits?”
They might ask, “How likely is it that user non-adoption risks presented by the energy option will diminish or negate its expected economic benefits?”
They might ask, “How likely is it that ecology destruction risks presented by the energy option will diminish or negate its expected environmental preservation benefits?”
They might ask, “How likely is it that technological supply interruption risks presented by the energy option will diminish or negate its expected supply security benefits?”
To the extent that decision-makers come into consensus that a risk presented by an energy option will not diminish or negate its expected benefits, the energy option might be said to mitigate that risk, and the energy option might be said to deliver risk mitigation benefits for users of the energy service provided by the energy option.
If a bundle of benefits delivered by an energy option is analogized to a bundle of sticks, the risk mitigation benefits of an energy option might be analogized to one of the sticks in the bundle, as shown in this figure:
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Benefits delivered by an energy option might be divided into 2 categories – benefits characterized by a quantifiable amount of benefit expected to be delivered by the energy option (“expected benefits”), and benefits characterized by a qualitative likelihood that the energy option will deliver an expected benefit (“risk mitigation benefits”) – as shown in Figure 2:
Decision-makers might be expected to use data to evaluate the quantifiable amounts (in numerically-stated units) of expected benefits of an energy option as follows:
Decision-makers might evaluate performance benefits of an energy option for electric power uses by modeling and/or measuring the number and duration of occurrences when physical properties (such as frequency and voltage) of electric power service are not maintained within reliable ranges over a length of time.
Decision-makers might evaluate performance benefits of an energy option for heating & cooling uses by modeling and/or measuring the energy option’s physical capacity to heat or cool air, water or a medium of heat exchange to a desired temperature (°C).
Decision-makers might evaluate performance benefits of an energy option for mobile uses by modeling and/or measuring the number and duration of occurrences when physical properties of transportation service (such as person∙speed∙time, or kilogramfreight∙speed∙time) are not maintained at a desired speed and/or a desired time.
Decision-makers might evaluate economic benefits of an energy option by modeling and/or measuring dollars ($) of economic benefit per unit of electric power service (kilowatt∙hours), per unit of heating & cooling service (kilowatt-hours or gigajoules), or per unit of transportation service (person∙kilometers or kilogramfreight∙kilometers), provided by the energy option.
Decision-makers might evaluate environmental preservation benefits of an energy option by modeling and/or measuring grams (g) of carbon dioxide-equivalent greenhouse gas emissions (CO2-e) per unit of electric power service (kilowatt∙hours), per unit of heating & cooling service (kilowatt-hours or gigajoules), or per unit of transportation service (person∙kilometers or kilogramfreight∙kilometers), provided by the energy option.
Decision-makers might evaluate supply security benefits of an energy option by modeling and/or measuring the increase in the renewable energy percentage of an energy service system with adoption of the energy option.
Decision-makers might evaluate risk mitigation benefits of an energy option by using their experience to evaluate the qualitative likelihood that a risk presented by the energy option will not diminish or negate an expected benefit of the energy option.
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If benefits delivered by an energy option look like 4 categories of expected benefits and 1 category of risk mitigation benefits, decision-makers evaluating benefits of an energy option might look like decision-makers asking themselves these 5 questions:
First, what might evaluating performance benefits of an energy option look like?
In Appendix A of You Can Reverse Global Warming, I lay out what evaluating performance benefits of an energy option might look like.
Second, what might evaluating economic benefits of an energy option look like?
In Appendix B of You Can Reverse Global Warming, I lay out what evaluating economic benefits of an energy option might look like.
Third, what might evaluating environmental preservation benefits of an energy option look like?
In Appendix C of You Can Reverse Global Warming, I lay out what evaluating environmental preservation benefits of an energy option might look like.
Fourth, what might evaluating supply security benefits of an energy option look like?
In Appendix D of You Can Reverse Global Warming, I lay out what evaluating performance benefits of an energy option might look like.
Fifth, what might evaluating risk mitigation benefits of an energy option look like?
In Appendix E of You Can Reverse Global Warming, I lay out what evaluating risk mitigation benefits of an energy option might look like.
In Appendix F of You Can Reverse Global Warming, I summarize what evaluating benefits of an energy option might look like.
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Wondering what decision-makers persuading themselves what options they want to adopt might look like?
My new book, You Can Reverse Global Warming, is the first-ever book to show a decision-making process through which decision-makers might compare benefits of energy options, and persuade themselves what options they want to adopt to deliver greatest benefits for energy service users.
For a limited time, you can download a complimentary advance copy of You Can Reverse Global Warming at www.erikkvam.com.
Got questions about how you can swiftly achieve 100% renewable energy? About how you can reverse global warming? If you do, I hope that you will send me a message at extraordinary@erikkvam.com.
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In the next article in this Reversing Global Warming series, I’ll show you what comparing benefits of energy options might look like.
Thank you for reading this article. I’m grateful for your comments.
